How did “Boyhood” become the Hillary Clinton of the 2015 Oscar race?
Back in 2007, it seemed a foregone conclusion Clinton would be the Democratic nominee for president and would probably win the general election as well. For months she had double-digit leads in nearly all the polls. It seemed like a done deal.
Until Barack Obama came out of nowhere, pulled even with Hillary in the polls, traded primary wins with her in the early going and then left her in his wake by winning 12 states in a row.
THE LIKELY WINNERS
Best Picture: “Boyhood”
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Best Director: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Best Animated Feature: “How to Train Your Dragon 2″
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida”
Best Original Score: Johann Johannsson, “The Theory of Everything”
Best Original Song: “Glory” from “Selma” (written by Common and John Legend)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Best Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Documentary Feature: “Citizenfour”
Best Film Editing: “Boyhood”
Best Cinematography: “Birdman”
Best Costume Design: “Into the Woods”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Sound Editing: “Interstellar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Interstellar”
Best Visual Effects: “Interstellar”
Best Short Film, Live Action: “The Phone Call”
Best Short Film, Animated: “Feast”
Best Documentary, Short Subject: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1″
A couple of months ago, “Boyhood” seemed a lock for best picture, and Richard Linklater was the favorite to win best director.
That was before the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild named “Birdman” as best picture, and the Directors Guild gave its top prize to “Birdman’s” Alejandro G. Inarritu.
Now it seems as if most analysts are giving “Birdman” and Inarritu a slight edge in their respective categories — but oddly enough, former prohibitive best actor favorite Michael Keaton has fallen behind Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”).
So wait. “Birdman” is going to win for best picture and best director on Feb. 22, but the guy who carried the film onscreen is going to be shut out?
When I filled out my fantasy Oscar ballot a few weeks ago, I had Linklater, “Boyhood” and Keaton winning. I still think “Boyhood” will win best picture, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a relatively rare split between picture and director, and if you gave me a gold bar and said I had to bet on best actor, I’d put the money on Redmayne.
But I’m not changing my predictions. I’m just hedging the heck out of my bets.
Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette still appear to be huge favorites in their respective categories. It’ll be a shocker if any other names are called on Oscar night. For the talented likes of Steve Carrell, Felicity Jones, Mark Ruffalo and Keira Knightley, the cliché of “It’s an honor just to be nominated” really is the case. They can all have a grand time at the Oscars and not concern themselves about pulling out the obligatory piece of paper and yammering on about how they really didn’t expect this, because it’s not going to happen.
As for the telecast, my annual predictions are as predictable as the telecast itself:
• Neil Patrick Harris will come up with a terrific opening number — and then, like nearly every host in Oscar telecast history, he’ll be reduced to the role of celebrity traffic cop for the next three-plus hours. As long as the Academy insists on giving equal time to all 24 categories, the Oscars are never going to be a fast-moving, never-a-dull-moment television show.
• At least one of the winners in one of the less glamorous categories will (1) struggle with the English language; (2) prattle on and on and on, even as the “play-off” music swells; (3) make some cryptic statement that will have the Twitterverse speculating and will require an explanation later in the evening or the following morning.
• At least one female nominee will wear a dress that seemed like a great idea earlier in the week but will be met with near-unanimous catcalls from the fashion experts and the Internet trolls.
• You’ll hear that “1 billion people” are watching the Oscars, even though there has never been a year when the worldwide audience was anywhere near 1 billion. Consider that about 40 million will watch in the United States. The telecast will be made available in about 225 countries — but that would mean some 960 million people would have to tune in. As an article in the New Yorker pointed out, about 15 percent of the U.S. population watches the Oscars. The “1 billion” figure assumes that 15 percent of all the population in all those other countries — most of them nations where English isn’t the primary language — are also tuning in.
That’s about as likely as J.K. Simmons, Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore all going home trophy-less on Sunday.
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